The Ghost of Arafat

November 12, 2004

Yasser Arafat is crafty ‘til the end. His death could not have come at a worse time for the Bush administration.

It creates a problem for the neocons that they cannot deal with head-on. Tony Blair's Washington visit is critical, because Blair is meeting President Bush face to face, unfiltered by aides, to tell the president that he needs to take the Road Map out of the glove compartment. It’s an issue on which Blair, already facing an increasingly anti-Iraq war public opinion at home, agrees with the Old Europeans. They all believe that it’s time that Ariel Sharon get his comeuppance.

According to the Post, Bush is considering the naming of a Middle East envoy to restart the peace process, an action that would trigger a huge behind-the-scenes struggle to determine who it is and what powers the envoy might have.

It also provides an opportunity for the Republican coalition’s two anti-neocon factions to join hands. The realists, led by Brent Scowcroft, Colin Powell, et al., and the nativists, led by Pat Buchanan and Co., can be expected to mobilize in support of a major new initiative to deal with the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Scowcroft outline the general shape of what an agreement might start with in a Post op-ed today:

The president should add substance to his commitment to an independent Palestinian state. It must include steps to provide security to Israel and to give the Palestinians the ability and means to construct a viable political entity free from the crushing presence of Israeli troops. The United States should insist that Israel stop construction of its wall on the West Bank and mirror its withdrawal from Gaza with the evacuation of the West Bank. In return, the wall and Israeli troops would be replaced by an international force, principally European or perhaps NATO troops.

And the Arabs can be expected to unite in demanding a return to Oslo-style negotiations and the Road Map. Already King Abdullah of Jordan and Jimmy Carter have side-by-side op-eds in the Times trying to push Bush in that direction.

How can the neocons deal with this? I’m sure their strategy will be to delay, counting on the militants of Hamas to bail them out by blowing up buses. Keep your eye on Elliott Abrams, the Middle East chief at the National Security Council.