Krugman No Islam Expert

August 31, 2004

Paul Krugman ought to stick to economics. In his op-ed in the Times Tuesday, Krugman pontificates off the deep end in Iraq.

After pointing out the obvious—that America is facing a no-win situation in Iraq—Krugman then sugge sts something: Why don’t we let the scowly fatwa man, Ali Al Sistani, run the place?

So what's the answer? Here's one thought: much of U.S. policy in Iraq—delaying elections, trying to come up with a formula that blocks simple majority rule, trying to install first Mr. Chalabi, then Mr. Allawi, as strongman—can be seen as a persistent effort to avoid giving Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani his natural dominant role. But recent events in Najaf have demonstrated both the cleric's awesome influence and the limits of American power. Isn't it time to realize that we could do a lot worse than Mr. Sistani, and give him pretty much whatever he wants?

Give the ayatollah what he wants? Well, first of all, whatever the problems one might have with Allawi (and I have a few), he at least (1) represents the government of Iraq, puppet-like or not, and (2) is a secular Arab nationalist. What’s more, it isn’t America’s place to hand things to Sistani. And, besides all that, does Krugman have any idea what sort of Iraq Sistani would create? Has he tried to calculate the effect on the Kurds, which would be almost an instant declaration of independence and civil war? And the effect on the Sunni fundamentalists, who, though no fans of America, aren’t exactly pals of the ayatollah and his boys?

And there’s more. Sistani is a sick old man. He ain’t gonna last. He may indeed command cult-like devotion from the self-mutilating, religious Iraqi Shiites. But he does not have enough clout to hold them together, not in the face of Iranian pressure, SCIRI and Al Sawa, the Muqtada Man and more.

Memo to Paul: Read a few books about Iraq before you mouth off. Or are you one of those, like Leslie Gelb of the Council on Foreign Relations, who want to divide up Iraq into three states, regardless of how bloody it will be? As someone said before the Iraq war: You break it, you own it. Well, we own it. And we have a responsibility, together with the international community, to make sure that Iraq gets the best government it can. That certainly doesn’t mean one run by Krugman’s ayatollah.