Is Iraq A Civil War? Not Yet.

Patrick Doherty

July 25, 2005

John Burns wrote in  yesterday's New York Times  on the question fuelling much discussion in Washington these days: Is Iraq already mired in a civil war? The simple answer is no. But we're also not far from it.

The situation in Iraq is complex, but here's the bottom line: The threshold for civil war in Iraq will be crossed when the parties in Iraq begin to use violence to seize and hold territory and when the current U.S.-brokered constitutional process breaks down.

Right now, the insurgents are using guerilla tactics that are targeting political objectives, not territorial ones. As Bob Dreyfuss reports today in his excellent article here in TomPaine.com, "A Way Out Of Iraq," the insurgents have political demands which have, in fact, been written down. These demands focus on Sunni participation in Iraq's political process and the increasing influence of Iran in Iraqi politics. And, as Edward Wong reported this morning from Iraq, the Sunnis are back at the constitutional table. The question is: are they really represented and do they have any real influence over the outcome of the process?

Unfortunately, the White House and the civilian leadership of the Pentagon have made every conceivable mistake in regards to bringing the Sunni population into the process. It started with the White House's decision to do regime change on the cheap and under-man and under-plan the post-invasion phase of the operation. Then the plan they cobbled together was too heavily dependent upon Shi'ites and exiles, like Chalabi and Allawi, who pressed for an aggressive de-Baathification purge which eliminated the majority of legitimate Sunni representatives. Then, Bush overruled the commanding Marine general and ordered the sacking of Fallujah, which, in addition to destroying practically an entire city, displaced hundreds of thousands of Sunnis and filled the insurgents' ranks.

Meanwhile, with the Sunni population enraged by the post-American election devastation in Fallujah, the national elections—now known to have been rigged by secret American funding of select political parties—happened only two months later, leaving no time to ensure Sunni participation and further entrenching Shi'a and Kurdish influence in the Green Zone. The result is that Sunnis have very little real say over the constitutional process, especially since the current draft is based so heavily on the Transitional Administrative Law which was borne of the neocon-dominated Coalition Provisional Authority.

So, when I hear from Bob Dreyfuss that a legitimate intermediary for the various Sunni insurgent groups was turned away by key civilians at the Pentagon and the White House, I am alarmed.

The great risk is that domestic political pressures from the Plame investigation and the timeline for the 2006 mid-term elections will outweigh sound policy decisions for Iraq thereby forcing the production of a critically flawed draft constitution on August 15th. After the 15th, the draft is to be debated in the interim parliament. Given that the Sunnis have no power in parliament, such an outcome might see the Sunnis simply walk away from a negotiated settlement and ignite the civil war.

The time for a negotiated settlement is now. The constitutional process must be extended and the Sunni concerns must be dealt with. Of course, maybe the White House thinks it can still win the 2006 mid-terms while Baghdad and the oil fields are burning.