Iraq Turning Point?

October 27, 2004

The turning point in the Iraq crisis could come on November 22, when the world’s powers meet to talk about Iraq. What happens three weeks earlier, on November 2, will determine if the meeting can force a paradigm shift in Baghdad, or ratify the Bush administration’s policy.

On November 22-23, in Egypt, an international conference on Iraq will be held, involving not only Iraq and the ever-shrinking coalition of the “willing,” but the Arabs, Europeans and the United Nations.  

France, quietly—you’d never know it from reading the American papers—is pushing for the conference to include the Iraqi opposition, presumably including some of the resistance groups, the former Baath, and Sadr’s militia (but not the Zarqawi terrorists). And the French want to raise the idea of a timetable for the pullout of U.S. forces. The withdrawal of American troops would be “a real signal of the return of sovereignty” to Iraq, said the French foreign minister.

It’s a way out. It’s like a neon sign, blinking: “Exit, This Way.” France, Egypt and Saudi Arabia could organize this, with UN support, with a deal including the opposition forces in Iraq.

But Bush is already planning the all-out assault on Fallujah, Ramadi and other cities held by the resistance. With bloody consequences, the Marines can take those towns. But they can’t win. They can’t defeat the opposition. And electing a puppet government in January behind U.S. bayonets, and propped up for years, Saigon-style, by U.S. troops won’t solve Iraq’s crisis.

Of course, if Kerry wins Nov. 2, Bush will still be president on Nov. 22-23. But the world will have begun to tilt.