Iraq Election Guide

January 28, 2005

Here’s a rough guide to the elections in Iraq. The main candidates are:

Iran. If you support Iran, vote for Ayatollah Sistani’s Shiite list, headed by Abdel Aziz Hakim, the commander of the Iran-backed paramilitary Badr Brigade. Chances are that this party will get the most votes and put Iraq on the slippery slope to the theocracy. It will harmonize with Iran, and Iran will probably move closer to the Sistani position. And don’t rule out the possibility of an Israeli-Shiite alliance to follow, in a year or two.

Saudi Arabia. Voters who support Saudi Arabia can vote for Allawi’s centrist party. The CIA-backed prime minister, running on a law-and-order platform, will probably come in second, and might even stay on as prime minister. Allawi is closely tied to the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia, although Saudi-Gulf voters can also back Adnan Pachachi, the octogenarian former foreign minister. Allawi means more the same—that is, more violence, more repression, more clashes with the Shiites and the Kurds.

Jordan. If you like Jordan, vote for the Sharif Ali bin al-Hussein, the Hashemite monarchist candidate running on a long-shot platform to restore Iraq’s monarchy. He’s a relative of the Hashemite who rules Jordan, though it seems he is closer to the disgruntled former Crown Prince Hassan than to King Abdullah. Still, if monarchists are your thing, he’s your man.

Syria. If you like Syria, boycott the vote. The Syrians are passively, wink-wink, backing the resistance in Iraq—not the lunatic Al Qaeda types, but the neo-Baathists, who might still mount a post-election comeback once the dust settles and Allawi tries to figure out how to accommodate the Sunni resistance.

Turkey. If Turkey is your preference, give the Kurds a big vote. Especially in Kirkuk, a city that no more belongs to the Kurds than Peoria does, but one they covet anyway because of the oil around it. If the Kurds win big and get Kirkuk, then Turkey will trump the whole thing and take over northern Iraq. Greater Turkey, anyone?

The American Enterprise Institute. If you want AEI to rule Iraq, better stick the Sistani alliance. Not only is AEI’s favorite stooge, Ahmed Chalabi, part of that team, but AEI and the neoconservatives seem to be desperate for a Shiite victory, perhaps envisioning the Shiite-Israeli alliance that could result. It’s a mirage, of course, since the Shiite movement in Iraq is far too volatile to be pro-American very long, and could veer into a very nasty anti-American direction quickly. But that won’t matter because the last candidate in Sunday’s vote is…

The Pentagon. DOD intends to stay put in Iraq through 2007, at least, with its full complement of 120,000 soldiers. Don’t expect America to give up its grasp on Iraq anytime soon, despite Bush’s interview in the Times in which he says he’ll acquiesce if the Iraqis ask us to leave, and despite Ted Kennedy’s courageous call for a unilateral withdrawal.

Made your mind up yet?