Hybrid Solutions

Jason Mark

April 21, 2006

Jason Mark is the Clean Vehicles Program Director for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

At long last America’s car culture is poised to move in a better direction. Hybrids are hot sellers while SUV sales are struggling. Politicians are joining hands across the aisle to promote alternative fuels. And our oil executive in chief has admitted our addiction problem.

Unfortunately, despite all of these green lights, the wheels of real change have yet to start turning.

Hybrid vehicles have become the poster child for addressing the nation’s deepening dependence on oil and the dangers of global warming. They are proving that we can develop the tools to solve the problems, but that alone may not be enough. Here are three reasons why: not all hybrids save much gas, we aren’t selling enough of them and ultimately we need to move away from petroleum cars altogether.

All hybrids are not created equal. Some cut fuel use by a third, while others barely squeeze out a few more miles per gallon. Pundits correctly point out that Detroit has lagged on hybrids. GM has wrapped the green cloak around “hybrid” pickups that fall woefully short of the potential of the technology, turning extreme gas guzzlers into moderate gas guzzlers. Fortunately, the automaker now promises strong hybrids in the future, and Ford’s Escape and Mercury Mariner hybrids prove that Americans can have SUVs that don’t trash the planet.

Even the industry darlings, Toyota and Honda, now must share the blame for confusing the hybrid market with muscle hybrids that do more to boost miles-per-hour than they do miles-per-gallon. The Accord Hybrid and the new models from Toyota’s luxury line, Lexus, appear to continue the two-decade trend of using efficiency technology for power over saving money at the pump. Fortunately, that ride may be ending, as sales of muscle hybrids are faltering (Honda recently suggested they might cut back on Accord Hybrid production), while the ultra-fuel-efficient Honda Civic and Toyota Prius hybrids are still hot items.

Ford and GM’s stock is proof positive that looking in the rear-view mirror is the wrong approach to product planning. As gas prices approach the $3 per gallon mark, the market is speaking up when it comes to hybrids: if automakers make them fuel efficient, buyers will come. But ensuring hybrid technology is used to deliver on its consumer and environmental promise is only the first step.

For every fuel-sipping hybrid that drove off the lot last year, more than 65 new conventional cars hit American roads. Their average fuel economy was worse than a vehicle two decades ago. Even as hybrid production ramps up to meet consumer demand, there are a myriad of cost-effective conventional technology improvements that could boost fuel economy for the masses. Studies by the National Academy of Sciences, MIT, the Union of Concerned Scientists and other engineering groups have made this case routinely, but political intransigence has stymied federal action to force a reluctant industry into offering better technology.

The Bush administration recently announced meager increases in fuel economy standards for SUVs, pickups and minivans. The new rules will save an average of two weeks of gasoline per year over the coming decades. Americans benefit from any increase no matter how small, but drivers deserve more fuel-saving choices in every vehicle category.

Increasing fuel economy is essential, but in the long run we will need cars powered by ethanol or hydrogen or green electricity to solve the oil problem and eliminate global warming pollution from our cars and trucks. The challenge is that no one knows which fuel to bet on. Many promoters of alternatives are busy overselling their fuel’s virtues and emphasizing the shortcomings of their “competitors.” In charting the unexplored territory beyond petroleum, it’s the equivalent of circling the wagons and shooting inward. As a result, our political leaders fumble around for a magic silver bullet amidst a cacophony of conflicting advice.
 
As any savvy investor will attest, the smart money is on a diverse portfolio, supporting all alternatives in hopes that one or more will succeed. Ethanol needs a sustainable, cheap feedstock and better ways to brew the fuel. Hydrogen-powered cars require technology breakthroughs and clean sources of hydrogen. Electric cars need much cheaper batteries and renewable electricity to replace dirty energy from coal plants. All three fuels need infrastructure support to compete with the country’s 180,000 corner gas stations.
 
Transforming transportation won’t come through research investments alone, however. While the auto or oil companies have never met a government regulation they liked, history has repeatedly demonstrated that market forces alone can’t solve the problem. From leaded gasoline to seat belts to fuel economy standards, these companies have routinely needed policy prodding to do the right thing by consumers and their health.

That is why our elected officials must require Detroit to use off-the-shelf conventional fuel economy technologies, boost sales of green hybrids, and invest today in all of the fuels of tomorrow. The road map is clear. Now we just need to get moving.