It's dangerous when your foreign policymakers believe their own propaganda. Good policy can't flow from shoddy analysis, and that's what we're looking at in Iran.

Today I had lunch with my friend SU, who just got back from an extended trip. Her family lives in exile, was close to the Shah and is very right wing. She's not.

When we met, she knew I wanted the scoop from Iran. The first words out of her mouth were: "man, is Washington lying":

I got all ready to go--I had this heavy black Châdor and the veil--the whole thing. I didn't wear any makeup, so I was very plain. When I got off the plane I stood out like a sore thumb. All the girls were running around très chic in their tight little outfits, picking up boys with their cell phones and doing their thing. It was embarrassing; I had to borrow clothes and makeup from my cousin because she wouldn't be seen with me outside the house looking like that.

OK, not quite the way we hear it. But there was much more:

I was all over the country, including some places I'd be scared to go without a guide. And the people really don't like the government. They're fed up. But they really hate the Americans--or, actually, the American government--and they'd fight to the last drop of blood if we invaded or if Israel bombed. Some would defend Iran and some would see it as defending Islam, depending on the social class, but whatever their ideology they would all fight the outside enemy. They're already signing up to be suicide bombers. Iran would make Iraq look like nothing.

Or, perhaps, like a cakewalk. Interestingly, she said that even in the Iran-Iraq war many Iranians felt they were defending Islam. Combine that with an administration hooked on the notion of Islam and Christianity in a Clash of Civilizations, and you've got a really scary, potentially disastrous pissing match.

It's also a fight between two nations that think their shit don't stink, if you know what I mean. This is from a note from SU, reprinted with her permission:

Contrary to popular belief, Iran's culture is not a monolithic one. Rather, it is a mixed culture. According to Dr. Abdolkarim Soroush, in his article "Three Cultures," Iran is a mix of the old Persian (Zoroastrian), Islamic, and Western thought…

The cultural heritage of the Zoroastrians is a belief in their spiritual and cultural superiority. Compromise with the outside world was considered a weakness.

…
Steadfastly clinging to the Zoroastrian pride and uncompromising stance--for compromise is considered to be a sign of capitulation and weakness-- the Iranians do not take favorably to the dictates of foreign nations. In fact, the history of Cyrus the Great is so embedded in most Iranians that they still think of themselves as a superpower. In revolt to America's demand that their right to nuclear technology be stopped, they are keener than ever to pursue it-- not as a violation or as a threat to world order, but as their inherent right. It is the Zoroastrian sense of superiority coupled with the Shiite sense of martyrdom that energizes the nation.

She said that the regime "loves to deal" and that "everything is on the table." You just can't approach them with a sticks-but-no-carrots strategy and expect anything but an ever more entrenched position. We're doing the opposite of what we should to accomplish our stated goals. SU:

The fact is that many Iranians think the regime would be in a lot more trouble if it weren't for the external pressure from the U.S. When they feel pressure, they clamp down on the domestic population and consolidate their power.

Whoa, that's way too much nuance for those morons making what we euphemistically call U.S. "foreign policy." For them, if you hate tyranny, you love the U.S. Basta cosi.

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