Democrats are poised for a sweep of Congress that has not been seen since the 1994 political tsunami that swept Republicans into the majority in the House, according to the latest series of surveys. But “poised” is the operative word.
Two items—a poll and a survey of congressional races by Congressional Quarterly —are particularly noteworthy. The Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of voters in Republican swing districts found Democrats leading in those districts by 4 percentage points. “The Democratic vote, stuck at 49 percent for months, suddenly jumped to 53 percent in the last two weeks,” pollsters Stan Greenberg and Ana Iparraguirre wrote in their report, called "Meltdown."
“We do not often get to write such a report—changes so large over such a short period that they certainly portend a whole new playing field for the November election,” they wrote.
Their findings were echoed by the latest CQPolitics.com handicapping of the likely House and Senate lineup. (Disclosure: I used to write for Congressional Quarterly .) Their painstakingly cautious assessment today has House Republicans getting 209 seats and Democrats 208, with 18 rated as “no clear favorite.” Either party needs 218 seats for control of the House. In the Senate, CQPollitics.com is giving 49 seats to the Republicans, 46 to the Democrats, with five in the “no clear favorite” category.
CQ also compares the potential “donkey stampede” to the “elephants storming up the steps of the Capitol” in 1994. “The momentum continues to clearly be on the Democrats’ side: The job approval ratings for President Bush’s Republican administration and the Republican-controlled Congress have plummeted deep into the danger zone,” CQPolitics editor Bob Benenson writes.
The Democracy Corps survey says that voters in the Republic swing districts rank the war in Iraq as the issue that concerns them most, followed closely by “jobs and the economy” and “terrorism and national security.” Medicare, health care and taxes also rank relatively high. And on every one of these issues except national security, the surveyed voters say Democrats will do a better job.
Still, Republicans have three weeks to catch up with millions of dollars poured strategically into districts to pay for take-no-prisoners campaign tactics. No doubt the saber-rattling in North Korea and even the continued unraveling of Iraq will be used by the Bush administration and the Republican political machine to sow doubt in the minds of wavering voters.
The other problem facing Democrats is that voters don’t like Congress, period: 67 percent of voters either somewhat or strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing. Republicans get a a large share of the blame because they are in control. But, as a Washington Post story on the Connecticut Senate race shows, incumbent Sen. Joe Lieberman is successfully playing to voter perceptions that extreme partisanship on both sides is the reason Congress is ineffective. That has put Democrat Ned Lamont behind despite his boost from progressive Democrats.
There is no dispute that voters are hungry for change and are ready to make a change. Greenberg calls it “an immense opportunity for Democrats to move strategically to consolidate gains at an unimagined level.” The only question remains is whether Democrats will seize it with bold ideas on getting out of Iraq and making our economy work for everyone.
--Isaiah J. Poole |
Tuesday, October 17, 2006 10:40 AM
