U.S. forces can conquer Fallujah. It’s a small city, and U.S. firepower is overwhelming. By going down that path, however, the Bush administration is sending an important signal of the type of foreign policy it intends to pursue for the next four years.
The left fork in the road goes this way: stronger cooperation with the UN, bringing the Franco-German Old Europeans into a deal, enlisting Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia in rebuilding Iraq, and easing tension with Syria and Iran.
The right fork—Bush’s choice, it’s clear—is more unilateralism, focused on winning the so-called war on terrorism by military force, and an inevitable showdown with Syria and Iran.
In today’s Wall Street Journal , Michel Barnier, the French foreign minister, has an op-ed in which he says that France stands ready to work with the United States in Iraq. “The important thing now is to turn Iraq into a real success story.” He also suggests U.S.-French cooperation on “break[ing] the deadlock in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict” and in supporting the European initiative to strike a deal with Iran. “Together we can succeed,” he writes. What’s the chance that Bush will agree? Pretty much zero.
The Journal also carries an editorial, “Kofi Does It Again,” blasting the UN’s Kofi Annan for his letter to Bush, in which Annan warned Bush that an attack on Fallujah will lead to an escalation of violence in Iraq and “could be very disruptive for Iraq’s political transition.” Says the Journal , no doubt reflecting the Bush administration neocons’ view of things: “Mr. Annan’s letter can only be described as a hostile act.”
Annan, the French, Egypt and even Iraq’s marginalized president want to make a deal with Iraqi nationalists in the resistance, including Baathists. (In his letter, Annan says that “certain Iraqi constituencies, particularly among Iraqi nationalists,” want a “dialogue.”) But Bush, with his mandate, wants no dialogue.
The Fallujah I offensive, last April, almost sent Iraq off the tracks, as large-scale civilian casualties (and mass graves) accelerated a nationwide uprising, cooperation between Sunni resistance and Muqtada al-Sadr’s Shiite forces, and a sustained battle that left thousands dead across the country. The softening up of Fallujah this time, plus efforts to woo Sadr (by Ahmed Chalabi, among others), may isolate the unhappiness over Fallujah II to the Sunni parts of Iraq. But that’s okay, Washington thinks. They’ve pretty much settled on a Shiite-Kurdish strategy for Iraq. But the new state of emergency in Iraq, with countless attacks against Iraqi police and national guard members, Iraqi government officials and ministries, and more show that the resistance is gaining momentum. In Samarra, supposedly pacified last month, a new explosion is underway.
